2024 Season Storylines: Mission AFT SuperTwins

Making The Case

Now that the résumés have been finalized, the debate can begin in earnest. And that debate, of course, is in regards to the rightful ownership of the title as the G.O.A.T., i.e.. Greatest of All Time, i.e.:

Jared Mees vs. Scott Parker

First, let’s get the disclaimer out of the way: Yeah, yeah, we know the debate is one that is impossible to settle definitively. It’s one that is as subjective as it is objective – you can’t merely stack statistics and make a proclamation. There are endless variables that prevent an inarguable determination, ranging from the differences in eras, machinery, opposition, venues, styles, longevity, etc.

That said, the debate will still rage. And we will relish and delight in it.

Disclaimer, pt. II: Mees and Parker are not the only worthy candidates with a claim. Some may instead place their support behind any number of other legends, including the esteemed likes of Chris Carr, Ricky Graham, Bubba Shobert, Kenny Roberts, Dick Mann, Carroll Resweber, Joe Leonard and so on.

But the vast majority of these debates will invariably center around Mees vs Parker, so that’s the match-up we’ll focus on for this exercise.

This mythical GOAT crown has largely rested on the head of Parker, replacing his helmet pretty much from the moment of his retirement, if not earlier. And if you ask Jared Mees, he’ll likely tell you that Parker remains the GOAT.

But at least for argument’s (and entertainment’s) sake, we’ll make the case for Mees in the wake of his historic achievement.

The case in support of Mees’ claim over Parker begins with a 1 and ends with a 0. Mees now stands above all, Parker included, in terms of Grand National Championships, a number he alone has elevated to double digits.

And while Parker still leads the career rankings in terms of premier-class Main Event victories – and by a fair margin – that’s completely down to his Mile exploits.

The Grand National Championship exists to recognize and reward all-around flat track excellence. And if you break the comparison down into the sport’s four disciplines, Mees’ case becomes that much stronger.

Parker is the Mile GOAT, no doubt. But Mees is no Mile slouch, ranking second in the category in terms of all-time race wins.

In Half-Miles, Mees ranks first all-time with Parker second.

In Short Tracks, Mees holds a share of first place, while Parker is well down the list.

And while neither was a historically great TTer, Mees stands above Parker in that category as well.

So, the tale of tape shows Mees as statistically superior in terms of Grand National Championships, and with more Half-Mile wins, three times as many Short Track wins, and twice as many TT wins.

If we need to further strengthen the case for Mees, we can point to his adaptability, earning his Grand National Championships on a range of machinery – six with Indian, three with Harley-Davidson/Honda, and one with Harley-Davidson alone. This is in contrast to Parker, whose nine are all credited solely to H-D.

Convinced yet?

And Yet…

Despite making the case for Mees as the best the sport has ever seen, it can also be rationally argued that he wasn’t even the best rider in the series this past season.

The path to Mees’ tenth title was in part paved by the misfortune of his ascending rival, Dallas Daniels (No. 32 Estenson Racing Yamaha MT-07 DT).

Daniels was well in control of the championship chase prior to being forced out for multiple rounds due to a broken femur suffered in a training accident. It’s impossible to say how things would have played out had he not gotten injured. However, Daniels’ rare combination of speed and consistency would have likely made any comeback attempt an uphill struggle.

While Daniels’ injury robbed him of a realistic chance to fight for his first Grand National Championship, he still showed himself capable of somehow outperforming the already sky-high estimations of his ability. Not only did he return to the fray far quicker than anyone could have reasonably expected, he did so without losing much, if any, speed. Despite hobbling around on a cane, Daniels closed out his year with a third and two seconds, closing out his season’s record with 13 podiums in 13 starts.

That puts Daniels well within striking distance of resetting the reunification era (post-2009) record for consecutive podiums once the ‘25 season gets underway.

Here’s the current ranking of longest podium streaks from 2010 to the present:

• Jared Mees: 14 (2023)
• Dallas Daniels: 13 (2023)/Dallas Daniels: 13 (2024 – ACTIVE)
• Jared Mees: 11 (2018)
• Jared Mees: 10 (2017-2018)
• Jared Mees: 9 (2021)
• Briar Bauman: 9 (2020)
• Jared Mees: 9 (2016-2017)
• Jared Mees: 8 (2019-2020)
• Briar Bauman: 7 (2021)
• Briar Bauman: 7 (2019)
• Briar Bauman: 7 (2019 – again)

Additionally, Daniels’ average finishing position of 2.0 in 2024 is the second best of that same era, bettered only by the 1.47 AVP Mees he registered during his completely dominant 2017 season. And one could argue Daniels’ 2.0 is actually the best, at least if you credit Mees as one position behind last place at the ‘17 Lima Half-Mile where he failed to advance to the Main Event, a recalculation that would put his ‘17 AFP at 2.44. Of course, Daniels’ tally ignores the three races he missed due to injury, so it’s all a bit gray.

Regardless, this season he performed at a level we’ve rarely seen, even with a GOAT racing alongside week-in and week-out.

Here are the best average finishing positions since 2010:

1. Jared Mees (2017): 1.47 (2.44)
2. Dallas Daniels (2024): 2.00
3. Jared Mees (2023): 2.11
4. Briar Bauman (2020): 2.26
5. Jared Mees (2020)/Dallas Daniels (2023): 2.23

Assuming Daniels returns with Estenson Racing in 2025, he’ll enter the season the heavy title favorite. Already producing like an all-time great, the rising star only expects to continue to develop and improve as a racer. And he’ll do so with support from a top-flight team and armed with a well-sorted package that was specifically designed to go bar-to-bar with Mees and the Indian FTR750.

And now with Mees and the FTR exiting the stage, it’ll be up to everyone else to do their best to keep pace with Daniels in 2025.

Who Can Keep Pace with Daniels in 2025?

A Mees-free Daniels has two primary and obvious foils remaining in the field: Brandon Robinson (No. 44 Mission Roof Systems Indian FTR750) and Briar Bauman (No. 3 Rick Ware Racing/KTM/Parts Plus KTM 790 Duke).

Robinson is coming off the best season of a Hall-of-Fame worthy career in which he finished second in the Grand National Championship to Mees.

As good as he’s been, Robinson has generally lacked the requisite TT chops and constant podium presence necessary to outscore the sport’s elite over the course of a full championship campaign. As a result, a successful Robinson run to the title requires that he thread a needle – and he nearly did so 2024.

But with Mees out of the picture, that narrow pathway has become a bit wider, albeit somewhat windier as well as we’ll discuss in the next section.

Bauman, meanwhile, twice proved himself up to the task of defeating Mees in a straight fight for the throne and did so aboard equal machinery. He’s been blessed with the all-around riding skills and consistency of an all-timer, at least when he’s got the equipment under him that allows him to demonstrate his true caliber.

This past season, the decision to part ways with long-time crew chief Dave Zanotti – even after finishing the ‘23 season atop the podium – and pivot to a Ricky Howerton-designed chassis to cradle the KTM 790 Duke mill was expected to bear fruit by the season’s midpoint, even if it forced something of a reset early on.

One step back to take two steps forward.

The end results were more akin to one step back to take one step forward.

In fact, Bauman’s results were eerily similar in his second year aboard the Rick Ware Racing KTM:

• 2023: Fourth in the championship, two wins, nine podiums, and 12 top fives in 18 races.
• 2024: Fourth in the championship, two wins, four podiums, and 12 top fives in 16 races.

So same title ranking, same number of wins, fewer podiums, but a higher % of top fives.

Despite another roller coaster of a season lacking the giant leap forward hoped for, Bauman noted that he felt the need to reshuffle his surroundings in order to gain a fresh perspective and tackle a new challenge. And if he was indeed reenergized as a result, the decision was still the right one even if the results were effectively the same. And now he’ll be better positioned to find that desired giant leap forward during the offseason.

The Silliest Season

Robinson headlines a sizable contingent of major league talent facing their own new challenge to tackle. The all-production based regs that go into effect in 2025 will result in numerous frontrunning riders, tuners, and teams that previously geared their efforts around the Indian FTR750 in need of a reset.

Meanwhile, Bauman headlines a sizable contingent that had already moved on from Indian to KTM-based racebikes. While a promising platform – and one that has proved itself a race winner multiple times over in relatively short order – the Duke has also proven a bit trickier to tame and fully adapt to dirt track racing than was perhaps initially anticipated.

It’ll be fascinating to see what shape the field takes in terms of team and race package composition in 2025.

Farewell to Arms

Next year’s rules revision marks the end of an era, closing the book on an entire category of racebikes, one that includes some of the most decorated and dominant machines in the history of professional motorsport, full stop.

The Indian FTR750 leaves with an incredible record – eight for eight in Grand National and Manufacturer Championships, winning all available titles from 2017-2024.

Included among its gaudy stats are 104 Main Event victories in 138 attempts (more than 75%), 291 podiums (more than 70%), and podium representation in 132 of 138 races (more than 95%).

Also racing off into the sunset is the Harley-Davidson XR750 with its stunning 37 Grand National Championships, 502 wins, and 54 years of competition.

And as Mees did for the Indian, Sammy Halbert (No. 69 Dodge Bros. Racing/Castrol Harley-Davidson XR750) did for the XR, providing it a proper farewell in the form of a Mission #2Fast2Tasty Challenge victory in its swan song.

The rules shift also signifies the official end for all of the other race-only machines the sport has produced, including the Honda RS750, which claimed four consecutive GNCs in the ‘80s courtesy of Ricky Graham and Bubba Shobert, before striking again in the ‘90s with Graham at the controls in what was arguably the greatest single season Progressive AFT has ever seen.

2024 Season Storylines: Parts Unlimited AFT Singles presented by KICKER

Graduation Day

You can count triple Parts Unlimited AFT Singles champion Kody Kopp (No. 1 Rick Ware Racing/Parts Plus KTM 450 SX-F) as among that long list of riders whose ‘25 plans are yet to be fully sorted and/or revealed.

He did, however, make known his desire to at last graduate to the premier Mission AFT SuperTwins class. After earning his third consecutive 450cc title, Kopp said, “This is the third championship, but we’re just getting started. We’ll see what next year brings… see you in 2025. If I had plans, I would talk about them, but I don’t have any at the moment. I want to be going in circles, and I want to be on the big bikes.”

Even in a paddock full of free agents, one would think Kopp’s signature will be among the most hotly sought. Assuming he does find a prime seat in the premier class, Kopp could play a major role in helping to fill the void left by Mees – not only for 2025, but more importantly, for the seasons beyond in which he could prove a significant balancing force in countering Daniels’ efforts to dominate the sport moving forward.

Those are some mighty big expectations for sure, but Kopp is used to it. He knows nothing else really. As the son of a Grand National Champion in Joe Kopp, Kody was under the spotlight from his earliest days. He also followed closely in Daniels’ wheel tracks and met or exceeded his predecessor’s amateur and early pro accomplishments in most every respect. And this past season, he chased 450cc history in a manner that mirrored Mees’ GNC efforts. He now leaves the category with more championships (three) and Main Event victories (21) – among a host of other achievements – than any other rider.

And as he said, he’s only just getting started. Expectations remain ridiculously high, but Kopp’s body type and riding style suggest, if anything, he could prove even better suited for a twin than he has the single.

Power Vacuum

If he steps us, Kopp will leave the class in a good place. There isn’t a worthy successor to his throne, rather there are two in Tom Drane (No. 59 Estenson Racing Yamaha YZ450F) and Chase Saathoff (No. 88 JPG Motorsports Honda CRF450R).

Even better, Drane and Saathoff have developed something of a brewing rivalry that should only intensify as their weekly clashes play out in a struggle for the #1 plate rather than second and third in the championship.

Ascendant

Really, a potential Kopp’s exit might actually leave the class in an even better place, just as his entrance onto the premier-class stage would put that class in a better place.

Besides the brighter spotlight placed on Drane vs. Saathoff, there would also be more opportunity for others to shine. And that’s not just the category’s established next group, but also the youngsters with the potential to blossom into the sport’s new generation of stars – riders such as Evan Renshaw (No. 265 American Honda/Mission Foods CRF450R), Logan Eisenhard (No. 66 Hannum’s Harley-Davidson KTM 450 SX-F), Bradon Pfanders (No. 288 Pfanders Racing/Scott Powersports KTM 450 SX-F) and Evan Kelleher (No. 131 Schaeffer's Motorsports/South Shore Design KTM 450 SX-F).

Mees vs. Parker by the Numbers

Grand National Championships 

• Jared Mees: 10
• Scott Parker: 9
• Chris Carr: 7
• Carroll Resweber 4
• 7 riders tied at 3

Main Event Wins:

• Scott Parker: 94 
• Chris Carr/Jared Mees: 78
• Jay Springsteen: 43
• Ricky Graham: 39

Mile Wins

• Scott Parker: 55
• Jared Mees: 30
• Chris Carr: 29
• Bubba Shobert/Bryan Smith: 25

Half-Mile Wins: 

• Jared Mees: 37 
• Scott Parker: 35 
• Will Davis: 26
• Chris Carr: 25
• Kenny Coolbeth, Jr.: 23

Short Track Wins

• Chris Carr/Henry Wiles/Jared Mees: 9
• Jake Johnson: 8
• Brandon Robinson: 7
• (... tied for 17th: Scott Parker 3)

TT Wins

• Henry Wiles: 19
• Chris Carr: 15
• Steve Eklund/JD Beach: 9
• Dick Mann: 8
• (...tied for 25th: Jared Mees: 2)
• (...tied for 37th: Scott Parker: 1)

Kopp Kopp’s Historical Success by the Numbers

Parts Unlimited AFT Singles Championships

• Kody Kopp: 3
• Dallas Daniels: 2
• 11 riders tied with 1

Career Main Event Wins

• Kody Kopp: 21
• Shayna Texter-Bauman: 19
• Dalton Gauthier/Dallas Daniels: 13
• Ryan Wells: 9

Short Track Wins

• Kody Kopp: 8
• Dallas Daniels: 6
• Dalton Gauthier: 5
• Brad Baker/Gerit Callies/Dan Bromley/Tom Drane: 3

Half-Mile Wins

• Shayna Texter-Bauman/Kody Kopp: 11
• Dallas Daniels: 5
• 4 riders tied with: 4

Single-Season Main Event Wins

• Dallas Daniels (2019)/Kody Kopp (2023): 8
• Kody Kopp (2022): 7
• Michael Avila (2011)/Kody Kopp (2024): 6
• Jeffrey Carver, Jr. (2010)/Ryan Wells (2016)/Shayna-Texter Bauman (2017)/Max Whale (2021)

Average Finishing Position (Single Season)

• Kody Kopp(2024): 2.125
• Jeffrey Carver, Jr. (2010): 2.67
• Ryan Wells (2016): 2.71
• Kody Kopp (2022): 2.81
• Dallas Daniels (2020): 3.00 (4.00)
• Kody Kopp (2023): 3.44