FloRacing is the live streaming home of Progressive American Flat Track. Complete coverage of this Saturday’s Bridgeport Half-Mile at Bridgeport Speedway will kick off with the day’s first practice session at 4:00 p.m. ET (1:00 p.m. PT). Sign up now and catch every second of on-track action live at http://flosports.link/aft. 

FOX Sports coverage of the Bridgeport Half-Mile, featuring in-depth features and thrilling onboard cameras, will premiere on FS1 on Saturday, June 23, at 12:00 p.m. ET (9:00 a.m. PT). 

Event Rewind: Orange County Half-Mile Main Event Highlights

• Mission AFT SuperTwins
• Parts Unlimited AFT Singles presented by KICKER

Daniels Leads the Grand National Championship Battle into Bridgeport 

Progressive American Flat Track returns to New Jersey for the second-ever Bridgeport Half-Mile.  Read More

Regarding the Predictive Power of Past Results

Consider the following quick and dirty shorthand formula for predicting how a rider may perform at any given race:

1. Recent form, i.e. “momentum”
2. Discipline adeptness
3. Historical success at the venue in question

For example, here’s that checklist applied to Dallas Daniels (No. 32 Estenson Racing Yamaha MT-07 DT) heading into this weekend’s Bridgeport Half-Mile:

1. Daniels has the points lead, a perfect podium record on the season, and is only days removed from a dominant victory… check.
2. Daniels is the only rider in the field to have podiumed at every Half-Mile since the start of the ‘23 season, including a dominant Half-Mile win scored last weekend… check.
3. Daniels won last year’s inaugural Bridgeport Half-Mile in a spectacular, final-lap showdown… check.

So, it’s a done deal then, right? Reserve that man a spot on the top of the podium…

Then again, let’s run it through on a race in which we already have the results to compare. How about reining Grand National Champion Jared Mees (No. 1 Rogers Racing/SDI Racing/Indian Motorcycle FTR750) going into this past weekend’s Orange County Half-Mile?

1. Mees entered with four consecutive podium finishes, including a win at the previous round… check
2. Mees is the sport’s all-time winningest Half-Miler… check
3. Mees was absolutely dominant in last year’s Orange County Half-Mile, the series’ first stop at the venue in decades… check

In fact, this is how last year’s contest was described in the post-event press release:

“The combination of Mees’ immense ability, experience, and support provided the reigning Mission SuperTwins champion with a decisive edge on a hyper-slick surface that tested the upper limits of the field’s collective skill.

“Even a late red flag that wiped out the multi-second lead Mees had diligently assembled did little to dent the factory Indian star’s dominance on the evening. He simply powered off the staggered start and marched away while his primary rivals waged war for second behind him.”

As it turns out, this year’s return didn’t play out quite as predicted, did it? A done deal undone.

In fact, it’s a credit to Mees’ talent and tenaciousness that he salvaged a top-five finish thanks to a clutch final-corner pass of Brandon Robinson (No. 44 Mission Roof Systems Indian FTR750) after nearly being forced into the LCQs and having run outside the top ten in the early stages of the Main Event.

Dirt track racing is as much black art as it is a rigorous science, with imperfect grip and continually shifting conditions that can alter radically inside of a race, let alone a day, or a year. As a result, even the most predictably stellar riders like Mees can perform outside of expectations (especially when so sky high), at least on rare occasion.

Interestingly, while the predictive power of past results came up short in the case of Mees, it struck gold in foretelling success for both a machine and a rider typically more difficult to pin down than the nine-time champ.

The Royal Enfield Twins FT enjoyed its best-ever day in the premier-class at Orange County Fair Speedway in 2023, with a heat race win and triumphant run in the Mission #2Fast2Tasty Challenge. And then it eclipsed that, even with a new rider at the controls, in its return, scoring its maiden Mission AFT SuperTwins podium.

Meanwhile, Billy Ross (No. 29 Mission Foods/Digitale Kawasaki Ninja 650), who had earned his first and only premier-class top-ten at Orange County to date a year ago, was even more impressive this time around, claiming an hugely impressive fourth.

Progressive American Flat Track racing is unpredictable but not random. That’s what makes it endlessly fascinating, and it’s why we can’t wait to see exactly what unfolds this weekend.

Royal Family pt. II: Succession Plan

Speaking of Royal Enfield, last week in this space we dug up some old quotes from Johnny Lewis (No. 10 Moto Anatomy X Powered by Royal Enfield 650) concerning the remarkable development effort endeavored to transform the Twins FT into a genuine contender in order to highlight the opportunity before the bike as well as its new pilot, Dalton Gauthier (No. 79 Moto Anatomy X Powered by Royal Enfield 650).

And just how did that go?

Prior to the evening program at Orange County Fair Speedway, Lewis provided some new and highly illuminating statements on that topic in an interview with Scottie Deubler that aired on the FloRacing stream.

Lewis said, “I think the bikes are so good. I’m actually so proud of the team and what we’ve been able to accomplish, really all the seasons, but especially how much we’ve improved it this season. And I haven’t been able to get the job done.

“I think Dalton will be good for the bike for this race and maybe the next couple races and (then) see what happens from there. He’s a little younger (than me), and he’s got the ambition. And I think we have a good motorcycle now. There’s part of me that wishes I was out there because I did good here last year, but at the same time, I’m excited to have Dalton on the bike and me kind of coaching him through those things.

“If he gets out there and does good – maybe puts it on the podium in the first race or something like that – that would be a pretty good feeling for me as a team manager and (someone who has) been developing this bike for the past five years. It’s like letting my bike go.

“I’m at that point of my career where I was brought on to develop this bike and progress the bike, and I think that’s what I’ve done. I manage the team and have an amazing crew. And if Ventura was my last race, and (Gauthier) starts doing good, I’m okay with hanging up the helmet and passing the torch.”

For pretty much the entire existence of the Royal Enfield North America’s Progressive AFT program, Lewis has filled multiple roles simultaneously, including team manager, lead developer, brand ambassador, and of course, lead rider.

It’s rare for a single person to occupy that many roles not only due to the enormity of the combined task, but due to the fact that those roles are not always complementary, and in fact, occasionally in direct conflict with one another.

Lewis’ quotes at Orange County demonstrate a degree of self-awareness and perspective we rarely get from racers. That’s in part due to the fact that in order to perform, an elite racer requires unshakable self-belief to the point of delusion.

It’s a common if subconscious tactic for riders to actively seek out external factors to blame (tires, track, bike, team, luck, lunch, etc.) to excuse their failures, so long as it doesn’t call into question their actual ability. They simply cannot risk puncturing the bubble of confidence required to risk as much and push as hard as they do to compete for race wins and championships.

It’s refreshing to hear Lewis speak this way so openly, but it’s also evidence that what he says is more than just words. Perhaps he is ready to redefine himself as a team manager first and foremost.

And if he does, perhaps that’ll prove a critical step in unlocking new levels of success for himself, Royal Enfield, the Twins FT, and Gauthier.

Pirate with Papers: Billy ‘The Man’ Ross

Billy “The Kid” Ross entered the Progressive AFT scene in 2021 with a fair amount of hype, armed with impressive credentials that included a history of stardom in BMX, go-karts, and amateur dirt track, not to mention the gunfighter nickname.

Since that arrival, he’s shown serious potential but typically only in flashes.

During his rookie season he registered a seventh-place finish in Parts Unlimited AFT Singles competition, but that was his only top ten of the campaign.

A step up to Mission Production Twins duty saw a step up in results as well, and he did put together a spectacular midseason flourish in which he earned his maiden Progressive AFT win, followed by a second podium, among a standout eight-race run. Still, that stretch was tucked inside a slow start and a slow finish to what would have otherwise been clocked as a breakthrough campaign.

His graduation to the premier class in ‘23 was a relatively quiet one, spent entirely outside the top ten – other than the aforementioned sixth-place result at Orange County.

As a result, his absence due to the injury over the opening six races of ‘24 didn’t demand a great deal of attention. But his return certainly did, as he put together what was likely the single most impressive performance of his pro career, Mission Production Twins win included.

During the Main Event, Ross took control of third place on lap 5 and locked it down – despite heavy pressure from Robinson – until the final corner of lap 24, in which he lost the final spot on the podium to the charging Gauthier by just 0.002 seconds.

With that performance will come more eyes and additional scrutiny and consideration. What Ross does for an encore will eventually show this as yet another flash or the start of a something bigger.

In Appreciation

There was real risk associated with the decision of Kody Kopp (No. 1 Rick Ware Racing/Parts Plus KTM 450 SX-F) to make a run for a third Parts Unlimited AFT Singles title.

On paper, this one appeared to be destined to be the most difficult one to obtain. Kopp had raised the bar and set the target. And by returning a third year, he also provided his opposition with the time and opportunity to match or exceed it.

Over the final two-thirds of the ‘23 season, Tom Drane (No. 59 Estenson Racing Yamaha YZ450F) showed the ability to go blow-for-blow and race-for-race with Kopp. Meanwhile, Chase Saathoff (No. 88 JPG Motorsports Honda CRF450R) made clear he had the potential to do the same, at least once everything clicked into place.

But rather than suffer as the gap separating him from the field diminished, Kopp has expanded it over the opening seven rounds of the 2024 campaign.

If he continues at his current trajectory, Kopp stands to end the year with sole possession of the Parts Unlimited AFT Singles records in the following categories:

• Career championships (currently tied for first)
• Career victories (currently tied for first)
• Career Short Track victories (already accomplished)
• Career Half-Mile victories (currently one win behind first place)
• Most wins in a single season (currently tied for first)

There’s little question that Kopp is fully ready to step up to Mission AFT SuperTwins competition. And on that front, there’s been some unconfirmed chatter that we might just see Kopp aboard a Wally Brown Racing KTM 790 Duke at some point as a small taste of the future to come.

Keeping up with the Joneses

While the leading four title contenders ultimately landed in those same positions in the race order at Orange County, update New Yorker Justin Jones (No. 91 J&H Racing Husqvarna FC 450) certainly added his fair share of excitement to the proceedings.

In the end, he wound up fifth, which equaled his previous best finishes of this year and last, scored at the DAYTONA Short Track in both in ‘23 and ‘24. But despite matching those results, this was something more. In fact, Jones was in in control for much of the evening program, including the opening couple laps of the Main Event.

The rider introductions prior to each race make apparent that Jones does not conform to either of the two primary body types that dominate the field, being neither long and lanky nor diminutive and featherlight.

Following his heat race and Al Lamb’s Dallas Honda Challenge domination, Deubler and Ralph Sheheen even discussed the possibility that this fact might offer him some sort of advantage in terms of grip or leverage or something along those lines. It’s hard to say if there’s any validity to it. Again, dirt track racing is largely a black art.

Regardless, talent is talent, and Jones certainly has that.

A Parts Unlimited AFT Singles race winner in 2015, he’ll continue to look to make waves in the series this season while also gunning for a pair of Flat Track Canada national titles, where he currently ranks 3rd in Open Expert and 1st in DTX Expert.

5-4-3-2-1

Five Half-Miles were contested during the 2021 season. Kolby Carlile (No. 36 G&G Racing/Yamaha Racing MT-07) snuck his Estenson Racing Yamaha into fifth at the Lima Half-Mile, and his then teammate (and once again Superbike pilot) JD Beach scored third at the Charlotte season finale.

The other 23 positions inside the top five at Half-Miles that season – including all five wins and 14 of 15 podium positions – were owned by the Indian FTR750.

Those numbers, taken from one year before the rules were changed to level the playing field, stand in stark contrast to the present-day reality. While the Indian remains the defending championship-winning bike and constant presence at the front, it’s also one surrounded by threats angling to steal its throne.

And never before was this illustrated so effectively as at the Orange County Half-Mile:

1. Yamaha
2. KTM
3. Royal Enfield
4. Kawasaki
5. Indian

Five manufacturers in the top five is a result to celebrate.

It’s worth noting that Harley-Davidson has earned three top fives this season – including a pair of podiums – with the XR750 and Sammy Halbert (No. 69 Dodge Bros. Racing/Castrol Harley-Davidson XR750), plus five top tens –  highlighted by a seventh –  with the XG750R and rookie Max Whale (No. 18 Latus Motors Racing/Liqui Moly Harley-Davidson XG750R) (who is mending from a broken ankle but expected back before too long).

It’s also worth noting that the developing Big Red SuperTwins Honda Transalp-based racebike has notched up three top tens already – with a best finish of seventh – with Dan Bromley (No. 62 Memphis Shades/Vinson/Al Lamb’s Dallas Honda Transalp) at the controls.

Is there any possibility the 2024 season could yet see not just repeat the five-in-five feat but top it with a six-in-six or seven-in-seven?

Stay tuned.

There’s a Streaker on the Track

Don’t look now, but Dallas Daniels has just put another podium streak inside the top ten such runs in the modern history of Progressive AFT (which dates back to the 2010 season in which the Grand National Championship was reunified).

How high can he stack this one?

Here’s the updated order:

• Jared Mees: 14 (2023)
• Dallas Daniels: 13 (2023)
• Jared Mees: 11 (2018)
• Jared Mees: 10 (2017-2018)
• 5. Jared Mees: 9 (2021)
• Briar Bauman: 9 (2020)
• Jared Mees: 9 (2016-2017)
• Jared Mees: 8 (2019-2020)
• Briar Bauman: 7 (2021)
• Briar Bauman: 7 (2019)
• Briar Bauman: 7 (2019 – again)
• Dallas Daniels: 7 (2024 – ACTIVE)

On the Path to Greatness

Here’s every Parts Unlimited AFT Singles championship to date alongside title leader Kody Kopp’s current 2024 trajectory as ranked by average finishing position. Also included are the number of wins and season’s winning percentage.

While Kopp’s 2022 and 2023 championships rank among the all-time best, his current effort is projected to stand atop the order in all three categories.

1. 2024 Kody Kopp 1.71 average finishing position, 4 wins (projected: 9+), 0.571 winning percentage
2. 2010 Jeffrey Carver, Jr. 2.67, 5, 0.333
3. 2016 Ryan Wells 2.71, 5, 0.357
4. 2022 Kody Kopp 2.81, 7, 0.438
5. 2020 Dallas Daniels 3.00*, 8, 0.500
6. 2023 Kody Kopp 3.44, 8, 0.444
7. 2009 Baker 3.62, 4, 0.308
8. 2018 Dan Bromley 3.80, 4, 0.222
9. 2021 Dallas Daniels 3.94, 4, 0.250
10. 2017 Kolby Carlile 4.12*, 0, 0.000
11. 2011 Michael Martin 4.3, 3, 0.150
12. 2015 Davis Fisher 4.92*, 4, 0.333
13. 2019 Dalton Gauthier 4.59*, 4, 0.222
14. 2013 Wyatt Maguire 5.1*, 1, 0.100
15. 2012 Stephen Vanderkuur 5.43*, 3, 0.214
16. 2014 Kyle Johnson 6.15, 4, 0.308

*Denotes a season in which the champion did not participate in every Main Event. In the cases where they failed to advance to a Main, this artificially inflates their average finishing position. For example, if one were to consider Daniels’ failure to qualify for the ‘20 opener as 18th (one position behind last place in that evening’s Main), it would increase his average finishing position from 3.0 to 4.0.