FloRacing is the live streaming home of Progressive American Flat Track. Complete coverage of Tuesday’s Black Hills Harley-Davidson Black Hills Half-Mile presented by The City of Sturgis at the Black Hills Speedeay will kick off with the day’s first practice session at 3:30 p.m. ET (12:30 p.m. PT). Sign up now and catch every second of the year’s on-track action at http://flosports.link/2024aft

FOX Sports coverage of the Black Hills Harley-Davidson Black Hills Half-Mile presented by The City of Sturgis, featuring in-depth features and thrilling onboard cameras, will premiere on FS1 on Sunday, August 11, at 2:00 p.m. ET (11:00 a.m. PT).

Event Rewind: Peoria TT Main Event Highlights

• Mission AFT SuperTwins
• Parts Unlimited AFT Singles presented by KICKER

Race of Champions

As noted in the preview release, 11 of the 15 Mission AFT SuperTwins Main Events at Black Hills Speedway were won by riders who also earned at least one Grand National Championship.

Joining reigning champion Jared Mees (No. 1 Rogers Racing/SDI Racing/Indian Motorcycle FTR750) in that tally are fellow premier-class champions Briar Bauman (No. 3 Rick Ware Racing/KTM/Parts Plus KTM 790 Duke), Bryan Smith, Joe Kopp, Scott Parker, Chris Carr, and Ricky Graham.

That seems like a lot – and it is – but that’s also true to a greater or lesser extent at numerous other venues as past, present, and future Grand National Champions tend to account for a huge percentage of race wins.

Perhaps more pertinent would be to examine the predictive power of a Black Hills Half-Mile win. That is, how often do winners of the race go on to claim the title in that same season?

That number is eight out of 15, so still more than half of the time. And that’s a trend that’s strengthened significantly in recent years.

Since the race returned to the schedule in 2015 following a decade-long layoff, the winner of the Black Hills HM has gone on to secure the Grand National Championship every single time – six out of six. And that includes Mees’ victory in Rapid City in ‘15, which happened to be his only win of the season.

All four of Mees’ prior triumphs at the track helped pave his way to the #1 plate. He’s the favorite yet again, both this weekend and for the 2024 crown. Aiding that quest on both fronts are the absences of Dallas Daniels (No. 32 Estenson Racing Yamaha MT-07 DT) and JD Beach (No. 95 Estenson Racing Yamaha MT-07 DT), who finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in last year’s race and final championship standings.

Battling History

As a quick reminder, here’s what was included in this space regarding the title hopes of Brandon Robinson (No. 44 Mission Roof Systems Indian FTR750) prior to the Peoria TT:

“Realistically, (Robinson) needs to take another step this season to bolster his chances. A top five, especially if achieved in conjunction with a 1-2 from Beach and Bauman, would keep Robinson within striking distance for when the series returns to some venues better suited to his talents.”

Not just mission accomplished but exactly as scripted (flipping Bauman and Beach, anyway). As a result, Robinson lost just three points to Mees in Peoria, a deficit that is now measured at 14 points.

Robinson – who has finished fifth or better in the championship six times, including third three times – might just be looking at his best ever shot to claim a Grand National Championship. But it won’t be easy. When you break it down, it becomes clear just how significant the task is that lies ahead.

With five races remaining, the Mission Roof Systems ace now needs to gain an average of three points on Mees each time out (tiebreaker scenarios excluded).

As we saw in the case of Daniels – who still happens to lead in the points race, by the way – the situation can change in an instant, be it by mistake, mishap, or mechanical means. Short of that, Robinson looks ahead and sees one race at Black Hills Speedway – a track he’s quite good at – and two at the Springfield Mile – a track he’s very good at. Unfortunately for Robinson, “quite good” and “very good” may not be good enough as Mees is the modern master of both.

While no one has raced through the streets of Sturgis just yet, history suggests the Arrowhead Brass Sturgis TT layout is more apt to suit Mees than Robinson.

As for the Lake Ozark Short Track, that’s a true wild card that could easily swing either way, which could make for a delicious finale should the points race still be in question when the series arrives there to round out the 2024 campaign.

While the road leading to a Robinson Grand National Championship may not be completely impassable, it figures to be extremely difficult. But difficult is what it’s supposed to be when discussing one of the most prestigious and historic honors in all of motorsport.

Rewriting History

Twenty riders throughout the sport’s history have successfully completed the Flat Track Grand Slam in its present-day meaning, achieved by winning a premier-class race in all four of the sport’s disciplines (Mile, Half-Mile, TT, and Short Track).

Fewer than half of that number have accomplished it more than once. And among that most exclusive company, no one has completed it in full on two different makes of equipment.

Or at least no one had.

Briar Bauman’s utterly dominant victory at the 77th Peoria TT was his fourth win since joining the Rick Ware Racing KTM squad just prior to the start of the 2023 season. And here they are:

• 2023 Lima Half-Mile
• 2023 Springfield Mile II
• 2024 Senoia Short Track
• 2024 Peoria TT

Half-Mile, Mile, Short Track, and TT.

Bauman also did the trick during his double championship-winning stint with Indian Motorcycle.

In fact, he’s also halfway there on a third make, owning TT and Half-Mile wins aboard a Kawasaki.

So, while Bauman said after his win at Peoria that he has to take the wins where he can get them because he “suck(s) on the ovals” at the moment, it’s more accurate to say he lacks consistency on them. The speed is there at any type of track, at least when everything is clicking.

It’s just a matter of finding a more metronomic click, one reminiscent of his days at Indian when even a third-place finish felt like something of an off night.

That click could lock in at any point. So, while Bauman needs to make up 23 points on Mees and nine on Robinson, it’s best not to count him completely out of this title race just yet. He’s not only capable of winning any of the five remaining races, he’s capable of winning all five remaining races.

Think about it: Bauman has previously won the Black Hills Half-Mile, will go into Sturgis viewed as the likely favorite, won the most recent Springfield Mile (on a KTM no less), and will be on level terms when the field arrives at the Lake Ozark Short Track for the very first time.

Hmmm… Half-Mile, TT, Mile, and Short Track. Does Bauman have yet another Flat Track Grand Slam in him?

Stacking Wins

Just when it looked as if double defending Parts Unlimited AFT Singles champion Kody Kopp (No. 1 Rick Ware Racing/Parts Plus KTM 450 SX-F) had sailed beyond the grasp of his rivals to occupy his own stratosphere, title rivals Chase Saathoff (No. 88 JPG Motorsports Honda CRF450R) and Tom Drane (No. 59 Estenson Racing Yamaha YZ450F) struck back to claim the last three wins in succession.

Whereas before Kopp harbored realistic ambitions of surpassing the class’ single-season wins record of eight (currently shared by Dallas Daniels and himself), at this point, Saathoff and Drane have rekindled their own goals of leading the category in wins this season.

As it stands, Kopp continues to lead the way with five, but Saathoff and Drane have drawn nearer at three apiece. Complicating that particular battle is the fact that their relative championship positions alter their wins calculus and do so in opposite directions. That is, Kopp could be tempted to ride a bit more conservatively to protect his championship advantage, while his rivals need to do everything in their power to score maximum points in hopes of fighting their way back into contention.

Man of Destiny

Despite suffering through this small-scale wins drought, Kopp’s recent run of second-place finishes hasn’t been an overly terrible development. In fact, if he carries his streak of runners-up through the end of the season, the most any rider can possibly gain on him is 20 points ((25-21)x5). And his current advantage? 28 on Saathoff and 40 on Drane.

Run the numbers again, and you’ll find that three 2nds and two 3rds on Kopp’s part are more than Saathoff can hope to make up, even with a perfect run to end the ‘24 season. Meanwhile, three 3rds and a pair of 4ths would do the trick to hold off a similar tear from Drane.

Can Anyone Else Step Forward?

Kopp. Saathoff. Drane. There’s no denying this has been a three-rider race (with Kopp doing everything in his power to make it a one-rider race). The lead trio has not only combined to claim ten of eleven wins this season, they’ve also scooped up 26 of 33 possible podiums (with three others only being made available following on-track incidents involving Saathoff and Drane).

Of the seven podiums earned by riders other than Kopp, Saathoff, and Drane, three have since graduated to the premier-class with the ascension of Dalton Gauthier (No. 79 Moto Anatomy X Powered by Royal Enfield 650). Three of the remaining four have gone to Trent Lowe (No. 48 American Honda/Mission Foods CRF450R) with the last belonging to James Ott (No. 19 1st Impressions Race Team Husqvarna FC450).

Those hoping for more variety could be in luck this weekend, considering Lowe is the only rider in the field to have stood on the podium at Black Hills Speedway in each of the past two seasons. But beyond Lowe and Ott, who might be the most likely of the next crew to claim a podium position?

While the top three has been monopolized by three riders, a full twelve different names have earned top fives this season, a list that also includes Tarren Santero (No. 75 Vinson Construction/P&M Motorcycles Honda CRF450R), Evan Renshaw (No. 265 American Honda/Mission Foods CRF450R), Jared Lowe (No. 63 BigR/Little Debbie Racing Honda CRF450R), Logan Eisenhard (No. 66 Hannum’s Harley-Davidson KTM 450 SX-F), Aidan RoosEvans (No. 26 FRA Trust/ATV’s and More Yamaha YZ450F), Justin Jones (No. 91 J&H Racing Husqvarna FC 450), and Evan Kelleher (No. 131 Schaeffer's Motorsports/South Shore Design KTM 450 SX-F)

Interestingly, sixth-ranked Travis Petton IV (No. 82 ECG Racing/A.M Ortega KTM 450 SX-F) and ninth-ranked Tyler Raggio (No. 55 Raggio Racing/Sluggo Racing KTM 450 SX-F) are still looking to break into the top five for the first time this season.

But what better way to do so than with a podium?.

Many Happy Returns

While Jared Mees has won four times at Black Hills Speedway, that doesn’t even merit a top-four ranking for most wins at a single venue for the nine-time champion.

Mees has doubled, tripled, quadrupled or more at 14 different tracks, accounting for 50 of his 75 career Main Event wins. Simple arithmetic will then tell you that he’s singled at 25 tracks, adding up to victories at 39 different venues in all.

And as good fortune (at least for Mees) would have it, the track where he’s won at the most is featured not once, but twice over the final five races of the 2024 season.

Here’s how the wins stack up by venue:

8 Wins:

• Springfield Mile

(Note: If Mees only had his Springfield wins, he would still be tied for 45th in career victories)

5 Wins:

• Lima Half-Mile
• Sacramento Mile
• Red Mile

4 Wins:

• Black Hills Half-Mile
• OKC Mile

3 Wins:

• Volusia Half-Mile
• Atlanta Short Track
• Texas Half-Mile

2 Wins:

• Calistoga Half-Mile
• Daytona TT
• New York Short Track
• Senoia Short Track
• DuQuoin Mile

1 Win:

• Silver Dollar Short Track
• Orange County Half-Mile
• West Virginia Half-Mile
• Dallas Half-Mile
• I-70 Half-Mile
• Meadowlands Mile
• Minnesota Mile
• Rolling Hills Half-Mile
• Arizona Mile
• AFT Finals (Perris Half-Mile)
• Williams Grove Half-Mile
• New York Half-Mile
• Charlotte Half-Mile
• Lone Star Half-Mile
• Grays Harbor Half-Mile
• Colonial Downs Mile
• Hagerstown Half-Mile
• Brainerd Half-Mile
• Knoxville Half-Mile
• Lake Odessa Half-Mile
• Hartford Half-Mile
• Joliet Half-Mile
• Volunteer Half-Mile
• Saluda Half-Mile
• Sedalia Half-Mile

By the Numbers: Parts Unlimited AFT Singles presented by KICKER

At the season’s halfway point, we looked at a number of records within Kopp’s reach. Three consecutive runners-up later, he’s still alive in each category with his odds improved for some and decreased in others.

Parts Unlimited AFT Singles Championships

• Dallas Daniels/Kody Kopp: 2
• 11 riders tied with 1

Update: With more than a full-race’s padding, Kopp is in strong position to become the first ever three-time Parts Unlimited AFT Singles champion.

Career Main Event Wins

• Kody Kopp: 20
• Shayna Texter-Bauman: 19
• Dalton Gauthier/Dallas Daniels: 13
• Ryan Wells: 9

Update: While unchanged, this one has already been accomplished. The question is just how much further out of reach he can push it, assuming this is his final season in the class.

Short Track Wins

• Kody Kopp: 8
• Dallas Daniels: 6
• Dalton Gauthier: 5
• Brad Baker/Gerit Callies/Dan Bromley: 3

Update: The same applies here.

Half-Mile Wins

• Shayna Texter-Bauman/Kody Kopp: 11
• Dallas Daniels: 5
• 4 riders tied with: 4

Update: Again, assuming this is his last go in the 450cc class, Kopp has just one shot at making this record his own as opposed to sharing it with fellow Rick Ware Racing entry Shayna Texter-Bauman.

Single-Season Main Event Wins

• Dallas Daniels (2019)/Kody Kopp (2023): 8
• Kody Kopp (2022): 7
• Michael Avila (2011): 6
• Jeffrey Carver, Jr. (2010)/Ryan Wells (2016)/Shayna-Texter Bauman (2017)/Max Whale (2021)/Kody Kopp (2024 – IN PROGRESS): 5

Update: This one feels much less likely at this point. Kopp is going to need to win four of the final five races despite minding his points lead to make it happen.

Average Finishing Position (Single Season)

• Kody Kopp (2024 – IN PROGRESS): 1.73
• Jeffrey Carver, Jr. (2010): 2.67
• Ryan Wells (2016): 2.71
• Kody Kopp (2022): 2.81
• Dallas Daniels (2020): 3.00*
• Kody Kopp (2023):: 3.44

*Daniels failed to qualify for the season-opening Main Event in Daytona. When factored in by placing him one position behind last place, it drops his AFP from 3.00 to 4.00.

Update: Despite going winless since the halfway check-in, Kopp has only moved that much closer to setting the new high-water mark here. In fact, his tally has barely dipped with his run of seconds, dropping slightly from 1.63 to 1.73, still nearly a full position better than second place all-time.