FloRacing is the live streaming home of Progressive American Flat Track. Complete coverage of this weekend’s Springfield Mile I & II presented by Drag Specialties at the Illinois State Fairgrounds will kick off on both Saturday and Sunday with the day’s first practice session at 11:00 a.m. ET (8:00 a.m. PT). Sign up now and catch every second of the year’s on-track action at http://flosports.link/2024aft.

FOX Sports coverage of the Springfield Mile I & II presented by Drag Specialties, featuring in-depth features and thrilling onboard cameras, will premiere on FS1 on Sunday, September 8. The Springfield Mile I will air at 7:00 a.m. ET (4:00 a.m. PT) with the Springfield Mile II scheduled for 11:00 a.m. ET (8:00 a.m. PT).

Event Rewind: Arrowhead Brass Sturgis TT Main Event Highlights

• Mission AFT SuperTwins
• Parts Unlimited AFT Singles presented by KICKER

It’s On!

Barely over a month ago, Dallas Daniels (No. 32 Estenson Racing Yamaha MT-07 DT) held a 19-point advantage in the Mission AFT SuperTwins points race on the strength of a perfect podium record. At that point, he had shown no signs of slowing down while laying the groundwork for a maiden premier-class crown.

A training accident then altered the shape of the season.

The wake of Daniels’ misfortune doubled as a clear pathway for Jared Mees (No. 1 Rogers Racing/SDI Racing/Indian Motorcycle FTR750), whose quest for an unprecedented tenth Grand National Championship had served as the backdrop of the entire 2024 Progressive American Flat Track campaign pretty much from the moment he clinched his ninth in Springfield less than a year ago.

Seemingly poised to secure a place atop the dirt track equivalent of Mount Olympus as early as this weekend, his disqualification from the Arrowhead Brass Sturgis TT altered the shape of the season yet again.

So now we have three riders – Mees, Brandon Robinson (No. 44 Mission Roof Systems Indian FTR750), and Briar Bauman (No. 3 Rick Ware Racing/KTM/Parts Plus KTM 790 Duke) – each with control over their own championship destiny and set to clash for supremacy over three races across two race weekends.

Whatever way it plays out, we are guaranteed an outcome of heightened consequence; no matter who wins, it will alter the shape of the sport’s history.

The Contenders

Jared Mees

Even with his Sturgis setback, Mees retains the points lead and has the greatest margin for error (albeit razor thin). He needs just less than perfection in a situation where he’s performed close to perfectly in the past, regardless of whether we’re discussing discipline, venue, or circumstance.

Mees – winner of more than 64% of all Mile races since 2017 – has triumphed eight times previously at the Springfield Mile alone. He’s also proven himself time and again in the clutch with the championship on the line. He’s even done both simultaneously, including just last season when he won at Springfield in the season’s final weekend with Daniels just a single point back.

If he pulls the championship off again, the significance is beyond obvious. Mees would eclipse the legendary Scott Parker in registering a record-setting tenth Grand National Championship, a feat previously considered all but impossible.

And the significance extends beyond just Mees and his personal accomplishments. A Mees championship would also send the magnificent Indian FTR750 out undefeated. A perfect eight-for-eight in the machine’s title conquests would be a fitting conclusion to an era of stunning success as the sport shifts to an all production-based future starting in 2025.

There’s plenty of speculation that this could be Mees’ last run. A championship in 2024 would provide a storybook ending to a history-book career.

Brandon Robinson

For Robinson, a first Grand National Championship would be every bit as meaningful as a tenth for Mees. Arguably more so.

The Mission Roof Systems pilot has finished inside the championship top five six times over his career and inside the top three on three occasions. That, combined with his 16-career premier-class Main Event wins, has earmarked him as a future AMA Hall of Famer, already surpassing the career marks of many enshrined before him.

While his place among motorcycling greats is essentially assured, the addition of a Grand National Championship would be nothing short of transformative in regards to his flat track legacy.

Consider 2000 Grand National Champion Joe Kopp, who enjoyed a long and decorated career but is remembered as 2000 Grand National Champion Joe Kopp for a reason.

Or, if you’ll expand your score a bit, 2006 MotoGP World Champion Nicky Hayden, who finished tenth or better in the World Championship ten times, among a long list of racing accomplishments, but is forever remembered as 2006 MotoGP World Champion Nicky Hayden.

Prior to winning his career-defining championship, Kopp’s success was largely earned in the shadows cast by giants Scott Parker and Chris Carr. Likewise, Nicky Hayden’s were taken in the shadow of Valentino Rossi.

But when the opportunity to escape those shadows presented itself, both riders seized it.

This very well could be Robinson’s single best shot at immortality.

In 2013, he trailed by 13 points after claiming a double victory at the Springfield Mile. That left the door open but only by a crack when the series arrived at Pomona for its finale. And in 2022, he technically maintained a mathematical chance heading into the double finale. But down 49 points and with four riders ahead of him, “theoretical” might have been a more apt descriptor.

This year he needs no help other than from himself and his team. Destiny is in his hands.

While Robinson has largely built up a Hall-of-Fame-worthy career in the shadow of Mees’ Greatest-of-All-Time candidacy, he is now only three perfect races away from making history himself.

Briar Bauman

Already a two-time Grand National Champion, a third would put Bauman in that much more exclusive company. But more than that, he would complete what has to go down as an epic underdog story despite being blessed with titanic talent.

Since leaving the all-conquering factory Indian squad following the 2022 season for an up-start effort backed by paddock newcomer Rick Ware Racing, Bauman’s fortunes have lurched this way and that, skyrocketing and plunging in equal measure.

Constantly searching for set-up solutions and confidence, it’s rarely been clear prior to the start of any given Main Event if Bauman was destined to blast away from the pack or find himself swallowed up by it.

And yet, like Robinson, he too is just three magical races removed from a title run that didn’t ever feel possible until… well, right now.

Beyond his own legacy, Bauman could hand KTM a first-ever twin-cylinder premier-class championship. Doing so would mark the first for a production-based bike since Bryan Smith did so aboard a Kawasaki in 2016, while handing the dominant Indian FTR750 its first and only championship defeat.

Give the Blue Bike Its Due

For all the discussion of Mees, Robinson, Bauman, Indian, and KTM, a minor shift in perspective is all that’s required to reveal a season dominated by Estenson Racing and Yamaha.

If the series paid points to teams or bikes rather than riders, the No. 32/95 Yamaha MT-07 DT would currently lead the championship by 51 points and have designs on locking down the #1 plate as early as Saturday.

Even minus that what-if, Daniels and his substitute, JD Beach (No. 95 Estenson Racing Yamaha MT-07 DT), have Yamaha up eight points over the combined efforts of Mees, Robinson and the broader Indian contingent in the Manufacturer Championship (287-279) with three races to go.

Should Yamaha hang on, it would mark the brand’s first Manufacturer Championship in nearly a half century with Yamaha claiming the final in a four-season run of titles in 1976.

Flash Back 

A lot can transpire in less than a second at the Springfield Mile – for example, ten riders blasting past the checkered flag as happened here in 2019. As a (semi) brief reminder, here’s a reprint of the race recap from that day followed by some relevant notes:

—BEGINS—

SPRINGFIELD, Ill. (September 2, 2019) - Monday’s Springfield Mile II at the Illinois State Fairgrounds proved worth the wait, delivering what may be considered the most jaw-dropping AFT Twins presented by Vance & Hines Main Event of the 2019 American Flat Track season.

Following an epic 25 miles that saw ten riders in contention for the victory even as they dove into the race’s final corner, multi-time defending AFT Twins Champion Jared Mees (No. 1 Indian Motorcycle/Progressive Insurance FTR750) worked his magic yet again to win out in the last-lap dash to the checkered flag. Making the achievement all the more impressive, Mees did so after starting in last position from Row 4.

The champ turned in his one provisional start card of the season to advance to the Main after encountering bike issues in his Semi. However, he managed to slipstream his way forward over the race’s opening third, joining the mammoth front group by lap 10. He was dueling for the lead a lap later -- a duel that wouldn’t end until the final stripe.

In the end, Mees outlasted title rival Briar Bauman (No. 14 Indian Motorcycle/Progressive Insurance FTR750) by a scant 0.083 seconds.

The triumph was the 14th Mile win of Mees’ illustrious career, tying him with the legendary Jay Springsteen for sixth all-time on the big tracks. It also brought him within a single race of Bauman in the evolving 2019 AFT Twins championship race, as he’s now just 25 points back (280-255) heading into the season’s final three races.

Mees said, “It was good to come off the back row and put my name on the list with the guys who have done that. It’s more emotional doing it this way on the back-up bike and working my way up. The Indian Motorcycle ran so phenomenal for me. My whole crew worked so hard; when that bike broke we were switching wheels, and shocks, and offsets to try to duplicate what we were running on the main bike. We got it done, and it feels amazing.”

Bronson Bauman (No. 37 Indian Motorcycle/Progressive Insurance FTR750) came through in third to lock out the podium for the Indian Wrecking Crew for the first time in 2019.

While the day ultimately belonged to Mees and Indian, a huge number of riders played starring roles with the entire top ten finishing within 0.653 seconds of the win.

Rookie Brandon Price (No. 192 Roof Systems of Dallas TX/DPC Racing Indian FTR750) made a late-bid for the victory and was one of five riders who slid into Turn 3 on lap 25, side-by-side, vying for the lead. He ended up an impressive fourth, fractionally ahead of Brandon Robinson (No. 44 Kennedy Racing/Armbruster Racing Indian FTR750).

Factory Harley-Davidson teammates Sammy Halbert (No. 69 Harley-Davidson Factory Flat Track Team XG750R Rev X) and Jarod Vanderkooi (No. 20 Harley-Davidson Factory Flat Track Team XG750R Rev X) factored heavily all day, with Vanderkooi winning a heat and Halbert starting from pole after winning his semi.

Halbert led in the late stages of the race but was shuffled down to sixth at the flag. Vanderkooi ended up eighth with Henry Wiles (No. 17 Bandit Industries/DPC Racing/Wilco Racing Indian FTR750) sandwiched between the Harley runners.

Davis Fisher (No. 67 Bob Lanphere Beaverton Motorcycles/Dick Wall 60 Indian FTR750) and Saturday's runner-up Jeffrey Carver Jr. (No. 23 Roof Systems of Dallas/Indian of Metro Milwaukee FTR750) rounded out the top ten.

 —ENDS—

You’ll certainly have taken note of several names among those ten whose continued relevance this weekend is clear. Beyond Mees, Robinson, and Bauman, you have the likes of Jarod Vanderkooi (No. 20 JMC Motorsports/Fairway Ford Ohio Indian FTR750), Davis Fisher (No. 67 Rackley Racing/Bob Lanphere’s BMC Racing Indian FTR750), Brandon Price (No. 92 Memphis Shades/Sody Ent/OTBR Yamaha MT-07), and Bronson Bauman (No. 37 Fastrack Racing Mission Foods KTM 790 Duke) still very in the mix.

A similar sort of race this weekend could have massive championship implications. In that style of shootout, a rider can do everything just right to position themselves for a last-lap strike only to have it undone by another rider’s perfect positioning.

Pushed up track and offline even slightly could cost precious tenths. And the loss of a tenth or two at the wrong time could prove to be the difference between 1st and tenth. 25 points or 10. A Grand National Championship or not.

It’s also worth noting that Mees’ victory that day in 2019 was his 14th Mile win, which moved him equal with Jay Springsteen for sixth all time.

He has since doubled that number. A sweep this weekend would see him tie Chris Carr for second on the career wins list in the discipline on Saturday and move ahead of him on Sunday.

Round 14 & 15

Barring disaster, Kody Kopp (No. 1 Rick Ware Racing/Parts Plus KTM 450 SX-F) is well on his way to completing his page-one rewrite of the Parts Unlimited AFT Singles record books.

Seemingly destined to walk away with more championships and race wins than any rider in the class before him, Kopp has his sights trained on yet another record.

For the moment, he shares the single-season wins mark with Dallas Daniels at eight. Now up to six in 2024 and with three races remaining, he has a chance to claim sole possession of that one as well.

Of course, that puts his season-ending goals in direct opposition to those of Chase Saathoff (No. 88 JPG Motorsports Honda CRF450R) and Tom Drane (No. 59 Estenson Racing Yamaha YZ450F).

While mathematically alive for the championship, all Saathoff and Drane can really hope to do at this point is rack up as many wins as they can and see how it all shakes out.

Even while Kopp hopes to reset the record, Drane, who has four wins, is still within reach of claiming most wins honors this season himself. And Saathoff, who has three wins, can still tie Kopp for most class victories in ‘24.

Other than in the championship standings, the competition has been quite fierce between the three as of late, each rider winning two of the last six races.

Expect more of the same in Springfield. Kopp earned his first Mile win here a year ago. Saathoff has finished no more than 0.092 seconds off the win in his last six Miles, including his 0.001-second victory over Kopp earlier this year at DuQuoin. And Drane’s career Mile finishes stand at 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th (the lone non-podium being just 0.088 seconds removed from the win).

6,4,3,0

The top three’s battle for wins has left none on the table for the remainder of the field. That same field expects to be in with a shot this weekend, however. For while the potential for pack war is very real in the premier class, it’s close to a certainty for the 450s.

Who might be the fourth to claim a win in 2024?

James Ott (No. 19 1st Impressions Race Team Husqvarna FC450) and Evan Kelleher (No. 131 Schaeffer's Motorsports/South Shore Design KTM 450 SX-F) slugged it out with the lead pack at DuQuoin.

Tarren Santero (No. 75 Vinson Construction/P&M Motorcycles Honda CRF450R) is coming off a 2^nd place run in Sturgis.

Trent Lowe (No. 48 American Honda/Mission Foods CRF450R) took a Mile win last season.

Evan Renshaw (No. 265 American Honda/Mission Foods CRF450R) is still seeking that out-and-out breakthrough performance.

No one in class history has the Mile pedigree to match that of Shayna Texter-Bauman (No. 52 Rick Ware Racing/Parts Plus KTM 450 SX-F).

And Travis Petton IV (No. 82 ECG Racing/A.M Ortega KTM 450 SX-F), Jared Lowe (No. 63 BigR/Little Debbie Racing Honda CRF450R), Tyler Raggio (No. 55 Raggio Racing/Sluggo Racing KTM 450 SX-F), Logan Eisenhard (No. 66 Hannum’s Harley-Davidson KTM 450 SX-F), and several others have the speed and skill to mix it up with the best of the best this weekend.

Minimum Guaranteed Path to Glory: Mission AFT SuperTwins

What follows is the absolute minimum our title contenders can do and still guarantee themself the 2024 Grand National Championship:

Jared Mees (236 points)

1st, 2nd, 2nd

In the scenario where Mees wins one of the final three races and takes second in the other two, he would end up with 303 points, putting him just ahead of Robinson’s maximum of 301 (two wins and a second) under those conditions.

Brandon Robinson (230 points)

1st, 1st, 1st

Should Robinson sweep the remaining three races, he’ll have earned 305 points. That’s enough to put him clear of the 299-point maximum Mees could earn in response via three runners-up. Anything less and Robinson winds up in the scenario provided above for Mees.

Briar Bauman (224 points)

1st, 1st, 1st

Despite facing a deficit twice as large as Robinson, his pathway is effectively the same. Should he win out, he’ll end up with 299 points, the same that Mees could muster with three runners-up, albeit with the tiebreaker in hand (five wins to three).

Minimum Guaranteed Path to Glory: Parts Unlimited AFT Singles presented by KICKER

With 289 points, Kody Kopp is the only rider with control over their own destiny in the Parts Unlimited AFT Singles class.

Chase Saathoff currently has 255 points. The maximum he can earn is 330. Even if Saathoff wins out and ties Kopp’s wins total of six, Kopp still owns the tiebreaker by virtue of more second-place finishes.

That means Kopp needs to earn 41 points to fend off Saathoff. That can be accomplished in a variety of wins, including two sixths and a seventh.

Tom Drane currently has 249 points. The maximum he can earn is 324. If he were to do so, it would also give him the tiebreaker, meaning Kopp needs to score 36 points to stay ahead of Drane. That could be done with three eighth-place finishes.

However, if Kopp wants to lock this up early as he did in 2022 and 2023, he’ll need to come up a bit bigger this weekend.

A pair of second-place finishes does the trick this weekend even if Saathoff were to claim both victories.

A second and a fourth locks it up if Saathoff and Drane were to split wins.

And a pair of thirds are all that’s required if Drane happens to sweep in Springfield.

None are exactly a gimmie, but all are very much in play.