The start of the 2022 Progressive American Flat Track season is now just days away. Here are a handful notes and numbers to bring you up to speed…

Off to a Good Start

There’s an old racing adage that says while you can’t win the championship in the first race of the season, you can lose it there. If it’s not obvious, the implication is, no matter how strong you start, there’s still a long season ahead. Yet if you risk all in search of immediate glory, you might just put yourself in a hole that’s impossible to dig your way out of.

How does this advice hold up when the rubber hits the dirt?

From 2017-2019, the winner of the first Mission SuperTwins presented by S&S Cycle Main Event of the season did, in fact, go on to championship. However, for the past two seasons, that hasn’t been the case. In fact, none of the eventual champions in Mission SuperTwins, Mission Production Twins presented by Vance & Hines, or Parts Unlimited AFT Singles presented by KICKER won the opening race in either 2020 or 2021.

That said, they generally got off to rock solid starts, especially in the cases of reigning class champs Jared Mees (No. 1 Indian Motorcycle/Progressive Insurance FTR750) and Cory Texter (No. 1 G&G Racing/Yamaha Racing MT-07), who won the very next day and left the Volusia HM doubleheader in a strong position moving forward.

Dallas Daniels (No. 32 Estenson Racing Yamaha MT-07 DT) pulled off the same second night win in 2020. Although, he did so only after failing to make the Main on opening night and still had a lot of work in front of him despite the admirable bounce-back effort.

So technically, outside of injury, it seems you can’t quite lose the championship in the opener, but you can certainly make things more interesting. And if you’re going to fail big early and still plan on earning the #1 plate, it helps if you’re a once-in-a-generation talent.

Just Win Baby

Mees and title rival Briar Bauman (No. 3 Indian Motorcycle/Progressive Insurance FTR750) have been nearly perfectly matched over the past three seasons.

While Bauman transformed a near automatic podium presence into premier-class titles in 2019 and 2020, Mees turned the table in 2021 with an impressive strike rate whenever a potential win was on the table.

Last year, Bauman was better at minimizing the damage on his worst days. His two worst finishes (10th and 6th) weren’t as bad as Mees’ two worst finishes (15th and 8th). And Bauman was also better at grabbing the most points possible on days when he wasn’t able to win, claiming five runner-up finishes to Mees’ one. 

But Mees was considerably better at sealing the deal, earning more than twice as many victories (seven to four). All of those races with five-point-plus championship margins ultimately made the difference.

Considering the mathematical and mental boost each win provides, expect the final laps to be even more fiercely contested in 2022.

Record Book Watch

Mees’ five-year assault on the record books is starting to reap some pretty serious dividends. The season’s 18-race calendar – consisting of eight Half-Miles, five Miles, two TTs, and three Short Tracks – provides multiple opportunities for historical achievements.

If Mees wins at least four Half-Miles, he’ll move ahead of the iconic Scott Parker and into sole possession of first place all-time in that discipline.

If Mees wins at least four Miles (which he’s done in two of the past three seasons), he’ll leapfrog Bubba Shobert, Ricky Graham, and Bryan Smith, and take sole possession of third all-time in that discipline, trailing just Parker and the legendary Chris Carr. And if he manages that, Carr will be firmly in the crosshairs in 2023 (although Parker remains realistically far beyond reach).

If Mees gets all three Short Track wins, he’ll tie Jake Johnson for third all-time and sit just one win removed from equaling Carr and Henry Wiles for first all-time in the discipline.

However, Mees could also find himself supplanted on the Short Track wins list with Brandon Robinson (No. 44 Mission Roof Systems Indian FTR750) just one win behind him. With two wins this year, Robinson would move into fourth all-time (either taking sole possession or tying with Mees should Mees get the other one).

JD Beach (No. 95 Estenson Racing Yamaha MT-07 DT) swept both TTs in 2021. If he pulls that off again in ‘22, he’ll spring up from 17th all-time and into a tie for sixth with the likes of Joe Leonard, Bark Markel, and Graham.

Text Me

Shayna Texter-Bauman’s (No. 52 Indian Motorcycle/Progressive Insurance FTR750) status as the winningest rider in Parts Unlimited AFT Singles history is well known. But now that she and her closest rival in that particular category, the aforementioned Daniels, have graduated to Mission SuperTwins duty, it seems extremely unlikely either will further pad those numbers in 2022.

As it stands, Texter-Bauman has 19 to Daniels’ 14. No other rider is in the double digits.

With those two gone, the active class leaders are Ryan Wells (No. 94 Waters Autobody Racing KTM 450 SX-F) and Dalton Gauthier (No. 79 American Honda/Progressive Insurance CRF450R) at nine apiece. While both are certainly capable of adding to that number, the prospect of either catching Texter-Bauman this season seems highly unlikely. It’s more probable they’ll have to work hard to keep Max Whale (No. 18 Red Bull KTM Factory Racing 450 SX-FFE) from catching them in second, considering the Aussie’s winning percentage of a year ago.

However, while Texter-Bauman’s place atop the Parts Unlimited AFT Singles order seems secure, she’s not totally out of the woods. Older brother Cory Texter currently owns 14 Mission Production Twins wins and is gunning for several more in ‘22. That could put him in position to one-up his little sister in terms of most wins in a single support class before the year is out.

But if he doesn’t, the door will close after the season finale with Mission Production Twins set to merge with the Mission SuperTwins class in 2023.

Who’s Next?

Over the last eight seasons, four riders have broken through to forever be immortalized as premier-class Main Event winners – Briar Bauman in 2014, JD Beach in 2019, Bronson Bauman (No. 37 Latus Motors Racing Harley-Davidson XG750R) in 2019, and, most recently, Davis Fisher (No. 67 Bob Lanphere’s BMC Racing Indian FTR750), who won last year’s finale.

While new winners don’t come along too often, there are multiple riders with the potential to do so in ‘22. Both Texter-Bauman and Daniels are extraordinarily talented and clutch performers. Neither one can be counted out even in what’s expected to be learning years.

More immediate, however, are the chances of Jarod Vanderkooi (No. 20 Mission Roof Systems Indian FTR750) and Brandon Price (No. 92 Briggsauto.com/Martin Trucking Indian FTR750). Both riders have been knocking at the door so persistently, it would be an upset if at least one of them doesn’t kick the door down this season… maybe even as early as this Thursday night.