The 2022 Progressive American Flat Track season will conclude back where it began, returning to Volusia Speedway Park with a terrifically tight Mission SuperTwins presented by S&S Cycle title fight front and center.

And just how tight is it? Well, if the season opener’s results from the same venue were to be twice repeated at the Mission Volusia Half-Mile Finale I & II presented by Daytona Dodge and Zo CBD on Friday, October 14 and Saturday, October 15, then Indian Motorcycle’s Briar Bauman, currently ranked fourth in the standings, would walk away with his third premier-class crown.

But exactly how wide open the door will be hinges on the performance of reigning champion and points leader Jared Mees. The factory Indian ace enters the critical weekend with a not insignificant 16-point advantage over second-ranked Dallas Daniels.

Should Mees pick up a combined 35 points or more, he’ll add another championship triumph to his slam-dunk Hall of Fame resume.

Assuming Daniels were to double, Mees could finish no worse than second and fourth and hold onto his lead. Two thirds or a second and a fifth would result in a tie at 295 points and with Daniels holding the tiebreaker.

Daniels’ Estenson Racing Yamaha teammate, JD Beach, is just two points further adrift, allowing Mees little leeway in the face of a Beach double. In that case, Mees could win the crown with a pair of thirds or the points equivalent, but nothing less; Mees would lose the tiebreaker to Beach at 293 points in the event of a third and fourth.

If Daniels and Beach were to split the wins and runner-ups between them, Mees would take the title over Daniels via the second tiebreaker (most second-place finishes) with a fourth and a fifth. In other words, it might make sense for Estenson to leave both riders off the leash on Friday and then consider implementing a more team-centric approach to Saturday should that scenario start to play out.

Obviously Mees’ path is easiest should he earn a victory himself at a venue where he’s won three out of five times. If he managed that, the best Daniels could hope to do is finish first and second on the weekend, and Mees would hold the tiebreaker over him at 290 points apiece with just a 15th-place result.

But don’t count out Bauman just yet despite his recent Cedar Point Short Track disaster. Should he sweep the season’s trio of Volusia Half-Mile wins, he’d take the title over Mees via the tiebreaker at 289 points if Mees finished fifth twice regardless of what Daniels or Beach managed in response.

The inclusion of potential spoilers the likes of Mission Roof Systems’ Brandon Robinson and Jarod Vanderkooi, along with Latus Motors Harley-Davidson’s Bronson Bauman, means finishing inside the top four is far from a guarantee, even for Mees.

(Technically, Robinson is still mathematically alive for the championship himself as he trails Mees by 49 points. That said, his most likely path to the title involves the four riders ranked ahead of him all staying home.)

All the possibilities are fascinating to consider, but one can drop their calculator as soon as Friday’s Main Event kicks off and just embrace the drama and excitement. Just remember to pick it up as soon as the checkered flag flies to reshuffle the deck one final time.