Running Scenarios: Mission Production Twins and Parts Unlimited AFT Singles
While the intense, four-way Mission SuperTwins presented by S&S Cycle title fight may be the main attraction at this weekend’s Mission Volusia Half-Mile Finale I & II presented by Daytona Dodge and Zo CBD, the battles set to be waged in the support classes are similarly intriguing.
The '22 Mission Production Twins presented by Vance & Hines #1 plate will either prove to be the third and final earned by defending champion Cory Texter or the first-career Progressive America Flat Track title for points leader Jesse Janisch.
It’s been pointed out repeatedly just how critical it was for Texter to narrow his deficit to nine points at the previous round. That margin allowed him to reclaim control over his own destiny but only just.
Two wins and Texter retires as the outgoing champion. However, that control is tenuous at best. Should he do any worse than the double, and he’ll require more than one rider to finish between himself and Janisch on the weekend. For example, if the G&G Racing Yamaha ace were to take a win and a runner-up finish, he would lose the championship by a single point should the Vance & Hines Harley-Davidson pilot respond with a runner-up and a third (321-320). If Janisch finished second and fourth, however, Texter would win the title by a single point (320-319).
(Note: Texter can’t win via the tiebreaker. He currently trails Janisch six wins to four. If Texter manages to move equal at six, he’ll win the championship outright.)
Technically five riders – Nick Armstrong, Billy Ross, Cameron Smith, Cole Zabala, and Johnny Lewis – remain in contention for third overall. However, third-ranked Armstrong is well positioned to retain the position with a healthy 23-point advantage over fourth-ranked Ross (179-156).
Even if Ross were to double, all Armstrong – who, it must be remembered, earlier won at Volusia Speedway Park to kick off the ‘22 season in upset fashion – would need to do is score a combined 28 points (the equivalent of a pair of fifths) to stay put in third (207-206 in that case).
And while Red Bull KTM Factory Racing’s Kody Kopp has already been crowned the 2022 Parts Unlimited AFT Singles presented by KICKER king, runner-up honors are decidedly in doubt.
Here too we have five riders still in contention – Trevor Brunner, Morgen Mischler, Dalton Gauthier, Max Whale, and Trent Lowe – although it’s likely to come down to Estenson Racing Yamaha’s Brunner (222) and Turner Racing Honda teammates Mischler (221), and Gauthier (213).
For Brunner and Mischler, the one-point difference means whoever has the better weekend is almost guaranteed to end up above the other and will likely be the ‘22 class runner-up.
But as Gauthier is just nine points back of Brunner and eight points back of Mischler, he can steal away second with a double win (or, short of that, by putting multiple riders between himself and Brunner and at least one rider between himself and Mischler).
Currently sitting fifth with 206 points, if Whale were to win both races, he would overhaul Gauthier but need Brunner to score 34 points (the equivalent of two thirds) or fewer, and Mischler to score 35 points (second and fourth) or fewer, in order to secure his third class runner-up.
Lowe’s odds are considerably longer – to the point that we’ll wait to run the scenarios until after Friday’s Main in the event he still remains in contention at that point.