Two-time defending Grand National Champion Briar Bauman has the inside line on a third consecutive title, owning a not insignificant 25-point advantage in the Mission SuperTwins title fight heading into this weekend’s Memphis Shades Springfield Mile I & II presented by Law Tigers.

Exactly how “not insignificant?” Well, second-ranked Jared Mees is just barely clinging onto control of his own destiny. As in, if Mees were to sweep the final five races on the calendar, he’d guarantee himself at least a tie atop the points table and own the tiebreaker to seal the deal. Anything short of five straight victories, however, and he’s going to require some help.

Mees probably shouldn’t count on much help from Bauman, who’s finished either first or second seven times in his last ten attempts. And that’s a trend that’s existed pretty much during the entirety of his reign, with 29 top-twos since the start of the 2019 Progressive American Flat Track season.

To suggest that Bauman could stitch together a run of five straight runner-ups (or better) to end the season is not all that far-fetched.

Asking Mees to win five in a row is a considerably bigger ask. Even that isn’t impossible, however, considering the way the schedule stacks up. With doubleheaders at Springfield and Sacramento comprising 80% of the remaining slate, Mees’ odds are much stronger than they would be compared to a random assortment of five races. The factory Indian ace did sweep all six Miles in 2019, and he’s won three of the last four Springfield Miles along with the most recent two Sacramento Miles. If he pulls off a similar feat over the next two weekends, he could lay the groundwork for a winner-take-all finale in Charlotte.

Since 2019, Mees’ win rate is actually superior to Bauman’s, but he hasn’t been as good at minimizing the damage done by his “bad” days. Strangely enough, while Mees has three wins this year -- tied with Bauman for the series’ lead -- he has zero seconds to Bauman’s four. That disparity alone accounts for nearly half of the 25-point hole Mees is currently trying to find a way out of.

Here’s where things get “wild.” The aforementioned help Mees could use may actually be in place in Springfield in the form of four extraordinary talented and motivated wild cards...even if that same help also threatens to up the level of difficulty to actually execute the must-wins:

“Mile Master” Bryan Smith is now officially on his retirement tour and looking for a storybook finish to his legendary career.

Jeffrey Carver Jr. is one of the most gifted riders in the world and fully capable of winning in Springfield with the home crowd cheering him on.

Henry Wiles needs just one Mile win to complete the career Grand Slam and further entrench himself in the history books.

Super versatile Hayden Gillim will have the chance to show what a Vance & Hines XG750R is capable of on a big track with reconfigured rules working in its favor.

If Mees could put even one of those riders between himself and Bauman, his climb to the 2021 Grand National Championship becomes notably less steep. More than one -- and/or on more than one occasion -- and we’re potentially talking about a swap in title favorite billing.

However, if even one of those riders were to finish ahead of Mees, the climb gets that much steeper, potentially stripping him of control of his own destiny in the process. More than one -- and/or on more than one occasion -- and we’re potentially talking about Bauman wrapping up the championship before we get to Charlotte.

It's worth pointing out that any riders other than Mees who fight up front this weekend -- wild cards or regulars -- are of equal utility to Bauman should he add to his burgeoning Hall of Fame résumé and join the list of Springfield Mile winners.

The best part of all this is since it’s the Springfield Mile, a huge range of scenarios might still be in the mix when the lead group exits the final corner. Recall that in 2019, Mees defeated Bauman to win at Springfield by a miniscule 0.083 seconds. Carver, meanwhile, crossed the line just 0.570 seconds later to finish tenth.